Istanbul Basaksehir make the short trip to Fatih Karagumruk in gameweek eight of the Turkish Super Lig on Friday, when the away side will be aiming to record back-to-back victories for the first time this season.
Fatih Karagumruk have enjoyed a slightly better start to the campaign than their city rivals, currently sitting ninth after registering 11 points from their first seven matches.
Match preview
© Reuters
After two consecutive wins for Fatih Karagumruk at the beginning of September, Francesco Farioli's side are winless in their last two encounters, most recently suffering a heavy defeat at the hands of Sivasspor.
Karagumruk dominated possession of the ball in that game on Saturday, but it was the home side who were clinical in front of goal and recorded a comfortable 4-0 victory over Farioli's team.
Friday's hosts will be glad to be back on home soil this week as they are unbeaten at the Vefa Stadium in their first three games in Istanbul, winning two and drawing one so far this season.
Farioli's side have proven that they can create chances and score goals, demonstrated by striker Aleksandar Pesic, who is currently leading the goalscoring chart in Turkey after netting five times in his first seven matches for his new club.
At the other end of the pitch, goalkeeper Emiliano Viviano has had a positive start to the season by keeping three clean sheets, two of which have come at the Vefa Stadium, and he will be hoping to add to that on Friday.
In comparison, Istanbul Basaksehir have kept two clean sheets and their latest fixture was their best result to date this season, beating Rizespor 3-0 away from home.
Stefano Okaka was the hero that day as he netted a hat-trick and the 32-year-old now has four goals in his first four games for his new club, after arriving from Udinese this month.
Aykut Kocaman's side will take confidence from that performance and result against Rizespor, and will look to emulate their attacking threat on Friday after registering eight shots on target last Sunday.
However, Basaksehir's away form suggests that it may be a difficult day at the office, having lost all three fixtures away from the Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium so far this campaign.
Fatih Karagumruk also got the better of their Istanbul rivals on both occasions last season, with their most recent meeting ending in a 1-0 win for Karagumruk thanks to a single strike from Jimmy Durmaz back in February.
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
Team News
Karagumruk left-back Alparslan Erdem is nearing a return to action after being sidelined since June with a knee injury, but Friday's fixture is likely to have come too early for the 32-year-old.
There is a whole host of other players in the physio room at Karagumruk, including Derrick Luckassen, Lucas Biglia, Rayyan Baniya, Tunay Torun, Vegar Eggen Hedenstad and Yannis Salibur, who will all miss out on this week's derby.
Striker Fabio Borini has not featured this season for Farioli's side, and he is expected to remain absent from the home team's matchday squad for personal reasons.
Pesic is likely to be a certain starter for the hosts, with Durmaz and Kerim Frei tasked with creating chances for the forward from a deeper role in midfield.
The visitors have injury concerns of their own as Ahmed Kutucu, Omer Ali Sahiner and Sener Ozbayrakli are all expected to be absent from the team on Friday, but out of the trio, Kutucu is closest to returning to full fitness.
Kocaman made five changes to the side which lost to Gaziantep for their last game against Rizespor, and after a positive result and performance on Sunday, the away side are likely to field the same starting lineup, including young centre-backs Ravil Tagir and Youssouf Ndayishimiye.
Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup:
Viviano; Erkin, Zukanovic, Bekaroglu, Balkovec; Ugur, Koyunlu, Bertolacci, Durmaz, Musa; Pesic
Istanbul Basaksehir possible starting lineup:
Babacan; Lima, Tagir, Ndayishimiye, Duarte; Cigerci; Turuc; Ozcan, Tekdemir, Visca; Okaka
We say: Fatih Karagumruk 1-1 Istanbul Basaksehir
Basaksehir will be keen to end their losing streak away from home and what better place to do that, at the home of your city rivals, whose confidence could be dented from a heavy defeat last time out.
When it comes to derby matches, form almost becomes irrelevant as passion takes over on the day - history suggests that the meetings between these two teams are closely fought and there is not much to suggest that Friday's encounter will be any different.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istanbul Basaksehir win with a probability of 39.65%. A win for Fatih Karagumruk had a probability of 35.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istanbul Basaksehir win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Fatih Karagumruk win was 1-0 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
