With a place in the final of the 2023 Club World Cup at stake, Brazilian titans Fluminense clash with Egyptian giants Al Ahly in Monday's semi-final in Jeddah.
Fernando Diniz's side bypassed the first two rounds of the tournament to enter at the final-four stage, while Al Ahly's second-round showdown with Al Ittihad ended in a 3-1 triumph.
Match preview
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On account of winning their first-ever Copa Libertadores title in the 2022-23 campaign - defeating Boca Juniors in 120 minutes of thrills, spills and ill discipline - Fluminense will make their Club World Cup debut at King Abdullah Sports City, where Diniz's side have a couple of wrongs to right.
While the Tricolor made history on the continent in the current calendar year, their domestic exploits left quite a bit to be desired, as they could only muster a seventh-placed finish in the 2023 Brasileiro campaign, ending up 14 points worse off than champions Palmeiras.
A last-16 Copa do Brasil exit to Flamengo was another blot on the notebook for Fluminense, but the Copa Libertadores holders will be present in next year's group stage owing to their maiden success in South America's most prestigious tournament and have now been handed a potential golden ticket to global stardom.
Diniz's troops have not warmed up for their Saudi Arabian sojourn in ideal fashion, though, as they ended their indifferent Brasileiro campaign with back-to-back defeats to Palmeiras and Gremio, losing 1-0 away to the champions before a 3-2 home beating at the hands of the latter.
The defeat to Palmeiras marked the only time in their last six matches that the Tricolor failed to make the net bulge, though, and an 11-day rest period also ought to do Diniz's men the world of good against Al Ahly, whose exertions against Al Ittihad were incredibly worthwhile.
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While Fluminense are awaiting their baptism in the Club World Cup, Al Ahly - who have reigned supreme in Egyptian football since the late 1940s - booked a spot in the international competition for the ninth time by virtue of coming up trumps in the 2022-23 CAF Champions League.
Sweeping aside their continental opposition earned the Red Devils a second-round date with the free-spending Al Ittihad, who deployed Fabinho, N'Golo Kante and Karim Benzema in a menacing-looking XI, but the Saudi Pro League champions' financial superiority did not translate into on-field dominance.
Indeed, an Ali Maaloul penalty, sublime Hussein El Shahat finish and Emam Ashour strike propelled Al Ahly into an unassailable lead just after the hour mark, and an injury-time consolation from Benzema - who missed a first-half spot kick - only led to muted cheers from the yellow wall of Al Ittihad supporters.
Not even a late red card to Anthony Modeste could spoil the Al Ahly party, but the club now led by Marcel Koller - once in charge of Austria - have never before reached the Club World Cup final, taking home the bronze medal in the 2006, 2020 and 2021 editions.
Unbeaten in all tournaments since October, the Red Devils will be rewarded with a showpiece contest against either Manchester City or Urawa Red Diamonds if they can break their semi-final duck on Monday, otherwise another unwanted third-placed playoff awaits the 43-time Egyptian Premier League champions.
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Team News
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Twenty of the 23 players called up to Fluminense's Club World Cup squad are Brazilian natives, with the exception of Argentinian striker German Cano - who struck a tournament-high 13 goals in 12 Libertadores games en route to glory - and Colombian duo Jhon Arias and Yony Gonzalez.
Cano and Arias - who amassed a team-high seven assists in the 2023 Brasileiro - will once again join forces in the Fluminense attack, but on-loan Palmeiras left-back Jorge is recovering from an ACL tear and is not involved.
In his place, ex-Real Madrid left-back Marcelo - a five-time Club World Cup winner with Los Blancos - will endeavour to use his wealth of international nous to his advantage, while 40-year-old Felipe Melo and 22-year-old in-demand midfielder Andre are also in line for starts.
As for Al Ahly, French striker Modeste - formerly of Borussia Dortmund and Blackburn Rovers - had only been on the pitch for three minutes as a substitute before being given his marching orders for violent conduct, thus ruling him out of the final through suspension.
Modeste's suspension could complicate Koller's attacking dilemma, as Kahraba - who set up two of his side's goals against Al Ittihad - came off injured in the second half, as did midfielder Ahmed Kouka, but the severity of their problems remains unclear.
Either Taher Mohamed or Karim Fouad will be called upon to spearhead the charge if Kahraba is not given the green light to play, where ex-Brighton & Hove Albion attacker Percy Tau will join them.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Fabio; Guga, Nino, Melo, Marcelo; Andre, Martinelli; Arias, Ganso, Keno; Cano
Al Ahly possible starting lineup:
El Shenawy; Hany, Ibrahim, Abdelmonem, Maaloul; Kouka, Ateya, Ashour; Tau, Kahraba, El Shahat
We say: Fluminense 3-1 Al Ahly
Kahraba's enforced withdrawal against Al Ittihad was not what the doctor ordered for Al Ahly, but Koller's side ought to head into Monday's game without any sense of trepidation after teaching Benzema and co a footballing lesson on Friday.
Minimal recuperation time will hardly benefit the Egyptian champions against a Fluminense side brimming with international experience and match-winners, though, and the well-rested Brazilian troops have our vote to advance to the final.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 54.62%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Al Ahly had a probability of 22.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.82%), while for an Al Ahly win it was 0-1 (5.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
Ben Knapton
