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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 47.61%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 27.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 0-1 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.
Result | ||
Cardiff City | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
47.61% ( 0.31) | 25.35% ( -0.17) | 27.04% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 52.54% ( 0.41) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.37% ( 0.59) | 50.63% ( -0.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.46% ( 0.52) | 72.54% ( -0.51) |
Cardiff City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.72% ( 0.38) | 21.28% ( -0.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.79% ( 0.58) | 54.21% ( -0.58) |
Plymouth Argyle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.75% ( 0.2) | 33.25% ( -0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.14% ( 0.22) | 69.86% ( -0.22) |
Score Analysis |
Cardiff City | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
1-0 @ 10.94% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.81% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.86% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.69% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.46% Total : 47.6% | 1-1 @ 12.05% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.08% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.34% | 0-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.43% Total : 27.04% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Burnley | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 41 |
4 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | Watford | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Luton TownLuton | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 25 |
15 | Derby CountyDerby | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 24 |
17 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 22 |
19 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
22 | Portsmouth | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 17 |
23 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
24 | Hull City | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 16 |
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