Third-placed Marseille take the long trip north to face Lens at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis on Saturday evening in gameweek 22 of Ligue 1.
The hosts have won every game they have played so far in 2022, whilst their upcoming opponents dropped points for the first time last week.
Match preview
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The less said about Lens' end to 2021 the better, as Franck Haise's side suffered a dismal festive period which saw them go six top-flight games without a win.
The winter break seemingly did them some good, however, and they appear to have done a hard reboot for 2022.
Their turnaround in form was perhaps inspired by their turnaround in their first game of the year, as Les Sang et Or came from two down to scrape past reigning Ligue 1 champions Lille in the Coupe de France.
Seko Fofana scored in the 67th minute and then again in additional time to take the match to extra time, and the acting captain then dispatched the winning spot kick in the subsequent shootout.
It was the Ivory Coast midfielder who was again the hero at the weekend, scoring a stoppage-time winner as his side came from behind to beat Saint-Etienne and move themselves back into contention for the Champions League spots, now just two points shy of fourth-placed Strasbourg and four behind their next opponents.
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Coming into the game on the back of three victories in their last four games - albeit two of those coming against lower-tier sides in the cup - Marseille would have been confident of beating a Lille side whose poor title defence had them stuck in midtable.
However, Les Olympiens found themselves one down after just a quarter of an hour, Sven Botman able to escape the attentions of William Saliba and head home Renato Sanches's corner.
Despite the visitors being reduced to 10 men shortly after, it took over an hour and a piece of magic from Cengiz Under to equalise, the Turkish winger curling in a beauty from the edge of the area, and Les Dogues were then able to hang on until the final whistle.
That result saw Jorge Sampaoli's side slip two points behind Nice in their battle for the rest, with Paris Saint-Germain now 13 points ahead of them at the summit and Marseille's fleeting title hopes continuing to fade.
They must now focus on a return to the top table of European football and ensure they secure a top four spot. A loss this weekend could be fairly catastrophic in those terms.
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Team News
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After their impressive comeback win on Saturday, Haise is unlikely to make too many changes to the Lens side.
Florian Sotoca, however, should come back into the starting XI after scoring a vital goal off the bench against Saint-Etienne.
Sead Kolasinac joined from Arsenal during the week and could come straight in the matchday squad, but most likely will not make it into the starting lineup.
Arkadiusz Milik shook off a knock to feature against Lille, but after drawing a blank the striker could find his place under threat from Cedric Bakambu this weekend.
Lens possible starting lineup:
Leca; Gradit, Medina, Danso; Clauss, Fofana, Doucoure, Frankowski; Sotoca, Said, Kalimuendo
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Saliba, Caleta-Car, Peres; Under, Rongier, Kamara, Hari; Guendouzi, Payet; Bakambu
We say: Lens 2-2 Marseille
Marseille have tended to win every other Ligue 1 match recently; a pattern which would set them up for a win here. However, they have not beaten Lens in any of their last three meetings - in fact, losing two of them - and will come up against a side high on confidence. All things considered, we are backing an entertaining draw on this occasion.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 44.04%. A win for Lens had a probability of 29.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.94%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Lens win was 1-0 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
