Struggling Peru welcome a resurgent Bolivia side to the Estadio Nacional de Lima on Thursday evening for the latest round of World Cup 2022 South American qualifiers.
The hosts sit second from the bottom in the table, whilst their upcoming opponents come into the match on the back of three consecutive victories.
Match preview
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Four losses in their first five games signalled a difficult campaign for Peru, but they recovered well over the summer, with wins over Ecuador and Venezuela sandwiching a draw with Uruguay, and an unlikely 2-0 victory over Chile at the start of October gave them hope.
Back-to-back 1-0 losses to Bolivia and Argentina killed that momentum, however, and La Blanquirroja now find themselves down in ninth place, five points away from the qualification spots.
Away form has been the biggest issue, with the defeat to Argentina making it five consecutive losses on the road.
That will, of course, not be a problem on Thursday, and a win against a side who they beat four times in a row before that 1-0 loss last month could see them jump up to as high as sixth.
Ricardo Gareca steered his side to their first World Cup in almost four decades when they qualified for the 2018 tournament in Russia, but will have to ensure his side tighten up at the back - having conceded 19 goals so far - if they have any hope of repeating that feat in 2022.
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Despite having now moved up to seventh in the table, Bolivia actually have an even worse defensive record, with their 25 conceded goals the highest of any team in the CONMEBOL.
You would not believe it having watched their recent games, however, as the 1-0 win over Peru was followed up by two more clean sheets in their qualifier against Paraguay and a friendly with El Salvador on Saturday. The game against Paraguay was not just a clean sheet, but an incredible 4-0 victory.
Bolivia came into the game ninth in the table and 78th in the world - compared to Paraguay's ranking of 38th - but produced a comprehensive thrashing, thanks to goals from Rodrigo Ramallo, Moises Villarroel, Victor Abrego and Roberto Fernandez.
If Cesar Farias can keep the defence as tight and the frontmen firing for the remainder of the campaign, they may just sneak into their first World Cup since 1994 and only their second since 1950.
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Team News
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Seattle Sounders' Raul Ruidiaz was left out of the Peru squad with the indispensable Gianluca Lapadula set to lead the line as part of a 4-1-4-1 formation.
Captain Jefferson Farfan won his 100th cap for the national team last time out, becoming just the sixth player to chalk up a century of appearances for Peru, but is most likely to feature from the bench once again.
La Verde have called up a massive 44-man squad for this month's triple-header against El Salvador, Peru and Uruguay.
Veteran players Juan Carlos, Leonel Justiniano, Carlos Lampe and Marcelo Martins all feature, with the latter looking to end a four-game goal drought on Thursday.
Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Trauco, Callens, Zambrano, Lora; Aquino; Garcia, Yotun, Gonzales, Cueva; Lapadula
Bolivia possible starting lineup:
Lampe; Je. Sagredo, Saavedra, Haquin, Quinteros, Jo. Sagredo; R. Vaca, Justiniano, Bejarano; Abrego, Moreno
We say: Peru 2-2 Bolivia
This could be a lively game with a few goals considering both sides' defensive records this campaign. Bolivia are in the better form but Peru will be determined to get something from the game after two frustrating 1-0 defeats and, with home advantage, we can see them having enough to earn a draw.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 61.23%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 14.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.67%) and 2-1 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (6.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Peru would win this match.