In the final game of their World Cup 2022 Qualifying campaign, Colombia will look to sneak into the South American playoff place when they take on Venezuela away from home on Tuesday.
While they cannot now achieve automatic qualification, Reinaldo Rueda's men still have a chance of finishing fifth with just a one-point gap between themselves and Peru.
Match preview
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Venezuela have had to endure a dismal campaign in South American World Cup Qualifying, picking up just three wins from their 17 games so far and sitting at the foot of the group as a result.
The latest of those came in their first game of the new year, as La Vinotinto broke a three-game losing run by thrashing Bolivia 4-1, with Salomon Rondon hitting a hat-trick alongside a Darwin Machis goal.
That result was instantly followed by a heavy defeat to Uruguay by the same scoreline, with Josef Martinez's second-half goal nothing more than a consolation, before they returned to action in March with a difficult trip to Argentina.
A Nicolas Gonzalez goal was the only difference between the teams heading into the final 10 minutes, but goals from Angel Di Maria and Lionel Messi ensured that the hosts came out with a seemingly dominant 3-0 win.
Now with little to play for and no chance of climbing off the bottom of the table, Venezuela will simply look to bow out of qualifying with what would be an impressive home win to build confidence in the camp.
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They welcome a Colombia side who will see a victory as vital in their bid to climb back into the top five with their final chance.
After a relatively commendable start, La Tricolor's qualification hopes took a major hit as they had to endure a seven-game winless run in which they failed to net a single goal and added just four points to their tally.
That left Reinaldo Rueda's side on just 17 points from 16 games, trailing fifth-placed Peru by four points, meaning that their only chance of going further was to win their final two games and rely on their rivals losing.
They stepped up to the challenge on their return to action on Thursday, comfortably defeating Bolivia 3-0 thanks to goals from Luis Diaz, Miguel Borja and Mateus Uribe to break their winless run and goal drought, and, with Peru suffering a defeat to Uruguay, La Tricolor moved within a point of fifth spot with a superior goal difference.
While they still need Los Incas to drop points on the final day, Rueda's men can simply focus on picking up a victory on Tuesday to keep their hopes alive, with a much better chance of reaching the inter-confederation playoffs than they had at the end of the previous round of international fixtures.
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Team News
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Venezuela should deploy a similar starting XI to the one that held Argentina to a close contest for the majority of their meeting last time out, with the experienced duo of Josef Martinez and all-time top scorer Salomon Rondon again set to lead the line.
Exciting young centre-back Nahuel Ferraresi will continue to play a key role at the back, while Jhon Chancellor brings international experience at the heart of the defence.
Rueda is unlikely to make many changes after La Tricolor's strong showing last time out, with creative midfielder James Rodriguez continuing to be an important man following his recent return to the national team.
Liverpool winger Luis Diaz is their star in the final third, and he could flank Miguel Borja, who came off the bench to find the net last time out, while Luis Sinisterra will battle to keep his place in the front three with the likes of Rafael Borre and Juan Quintero also vying to come into the attacking line.
Mateus Uribe will also hope for a starting berth in the engine room after his goal off the bench, with experienced Juventus man Juan Cuadrado also playing a key role from midfield.
Everton centre-back Yerry Mina is out of the squad due to an injury, while his regular international partner Davinson Sanchez was left on the bench last time out as Rueda instead opted to deploy the pairing of William Tesillo and Carlos Cuesta.
Venezuela possible starting lineup:
Farinez; Rosales, Ferraresi, Chancellor, Makoun, Navarro; Jose Martinez, Herrera, Casseres; Rondon, Josef Martinez
Colombia possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Munoz, Cuesta, Tesillo, Fabra; Cuadrado, Uribe, Cuellar, Diaz; Rodriguez; Borja
We say: Venezuela 0-2 Colombia
With more quality in their ranks and the need for three points, we back La Tricolor to pick up a victory on Tuesday.
After their poor run, Rueda's men should have gained confidence from their victory last week, and they will know they have no room for error if they are to stand a chance of taking fifth spot.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 44.29%. A win for Venezuela had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.69%). The likeliest Venezuela win was 1-0 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Colombia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Colombia.