Separated by just one place and a single point in the Serie A standings, 14th-placed Empoli take on Spezia - who sit 15th - at Stadio Carlo Castellani on Saturday afternoon.
While the home side continued a long winless run with derby defeat last week, their visitors have improved markedly since the turn of the year to pull themselves clear of danger.
Match preview
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Even after a fortnight out of the firing line provided hopes of a fresh start for April, Empoli's agonising winless run in Serie A was extended to a 14th game last Sunday, as they went down 1-0 to Fiorentina in the Derby dell'Arno.
Their Tuscan rivals took full advantage after Sebastiano Luperto was sent off for a second bookable offence in the 57th minute, as Nicolas Gonzalez turned in a cross from the resulting free kick to score what proved to be the decisive goal.
As a result, Aurelio Andreazzoli's side are on the longest streak without victory of any club throughout the top five European leagues - drawing and losing seven times each since their last success: a 1-0 win away to Napoli just before Christmas.
The Azzurri last went 15 consecutive games without a win back in 1999, and their current crisis is a far cry from a golden period during the past year, when they won promotion to the top flight as Serie B champions and then sat just four points off the European places in December.
Such a change of fortunes in 2022 has seen Empoli gradually slide down the standings, and hopes of a top-half finish are all but over with seven games to play. Still 11 points clear of the bottom three, though, there are no fears of an immediate return to the second tier.
So with little left to play for, they now attempt to go one better than in their only previous Serie A meeting with Saturday's opponents, which ended 1-1 earlier this season, with both teams conceding an own goal.
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In contrast with their hosts, Spezia have rallied during recent months after a tough start to life under coach Thiago Motta and posted their ninth league win last Saturday - edging out struggling Venezia at Stadio Alberto Picco.
After Emmanuel Gyasi's last-gasp winner, the Aquilotti have now scored five times from the 90th minute onwards in Serie A this season - only Roma have netted more - so the Ligurian outfit certainly do not know when they are beaten.
As a result of such fightbacks, Spezia have now collected the same number of points (32) after 31 games this term as they managed at the same point last year, during their debut campaign in the Italian elite.
Despite stumbling through February into March, when five losses from six Serie A matches cast doubt over their revival, there remains every chance that they will therefore extend their first-ever spell in the top tier to a third successive season.
Having recently seen off two potential relegation rivals in Venezia and Cagliari, now Motta's men can breathe easily and enjoy the run-in without fear of falling through the trapdoor: they sit 10 points clear of the bottom three coming into the final stretch.
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Team News
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As they look to end their long win-free streak, Empoli's defensive department has been disrupted by a season-ending injury to Lorenzo Tonelli, after the centre-back went off injured against Fiorentina and subsequent scans confirmed an ACL injury.
His partner at the heart of the Azzurri's defence, Sebastiano Luperto, is suspended for Saturday's fixture having been dismissed in the same game, so young prospect Mattia Viti should be drafted into the side. Simone Romagnoli could also feature in the hosts' back four.
Just behind them, goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario has made the most saves (123) in the top five European leagues in 2021-22, with an average of nearly four per match - indicating his team's defensive woes. At the other end, another loanee - Inter striker Andrea Pinamonti - is Empoli's nine-goal top scorer and starts up front.
Spezia, meanwhile, should have only midfield trio Mehdi Bourabia, Leo Sena and Aimar Sher out of action this weekend; opening up the prospect of Thiago Motta naming an unchanged side for the trip to Tuscany.
However, Albanian centre-forward Rey Manaj could be included from the start if Motta opts to replace Viktor Kovalenko with a more conventional frontman on Saturday.
Empoli possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Stojanovic, Romagnoli, Viti, Cacace; Zurkowski, Asllani, Bandinelli; Henderson, Di Francesco; Pinamonti
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolaou, Reca; Maggiore, Kiwior, Bastoni; Agudelo, Manaj, Gyasi
We say: Empoli 1-1 Spezia
Though both sides are effectively safe, they will each want to wrap up their season in style, but Empoli's inability to turn one point into three has left them increasingly desperate for any kind of victory.
It may not finally arrive on Saturday, though, as Spezia can take advantage of their troubles at the back - now exacerbated by injury and suspension - to secure a score draw at the Castellani.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Empoli win with a probability of 52.39%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 25.23% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Empoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-2 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
