Union Berlin and Freiburg square off in the Bundesliga on Wednesday evening with just two points separating the clubs in the standings.
However, the two teams, in sixth and fifth place respectively, head into this contest on the back of defeats to Greuther Fuerth and Hoffenheim respectively.
Match preview
© Reuters
At a time when some of the usual faces have been struggling for consistency, Union Berlin and Freiburg have found themselves in contention for the Champions League spots.
Nevertheless, such is the pressure to capitalise on the situation, they both succumbed to potentially costly defeats at the weekend, most notably Union Berlin.
Urs Fischer's side travelled to Greuther Fuerth with their hosts yet to win a Bundesliga game all season, but a second-half Havard Nielsen goal condemned Berlin to a shock defeat.
While success against RB Leipzig remains fresh in the memory, Berlin have now lost twice in three outings, leaving them just three points above 11th position.
With the club having also failed to progress through to the Europa Conference League knockout stages, Fischer is aware that he needs a productive Christmas and New Year period to not undermine the club's previous good start to the campaign.
© Reuters
The same can be said of Christian Streich, who has witnessed his Freiburg side lose four of their last five encounters in Germany's top flight.
Some perspective is required with Freiburg having not conceded more than two goals during any of those setbacks, but they have now completely lost touch with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
Having thrashed Borussia Monchengladbach by a 6-0 scoreline on December 5, Streich would have had high hopes for the home fixture against rivals Hoffenheim.
However, a last-gasp winner for their opponents has led to Freiburg dropping down to fifth spot, their lowest place since the early weeks of the season.
While Union Berlin head into this encounter with the fourth-best home record in the division, Freiburg have the third-best return on their travels.
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Having made a number of changes at the weekend, Fischer will almost certainly freshen up his Berlin XI, including handing a recall to Taiwo Awoniyi.
Rani Khedira is also in line to return in central midfield, while Marvin Friedrich will be assessed after missing out through illness at the weekend.
With Ermedin Demirovic unlikely to start this contest, Freiburg pair Jeong Woo-Yeong and Roland Sallai are both pushing for opportunities in the final third.
Jeong may potentially get the nod on the right flank in a move which would see Kevin Schade drop down to the substitutes' bench.
Manuel Gulde is an option if Streich makes a change to his defence.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Jaeckel, Knoche, Baumgartl; Ryerson, Khedira, Promel, Becker, Giebelmann; Kruse, Awoniyi
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Kubler, Lienhart, Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Eggestein, Hofler; Jeong, Holer, Grifo; Sallai
We say: Union Berlin 1-1 Freiburg
Despite their respective setbacks at the weekend, both teams will feel confident about bouncing back with a win. Nevertheless, a second successive defeat would damage their hopes of European qualification, leading us to think that a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome.
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 38.61%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 35.43% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
