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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 43.34%. A win for Watford had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Luton Town | Draw | Watford |
43.34% ( 0.38) | 25% ( -0.08) | 31.66% ( -0.29) |
Both teams to score 56.51% ( 0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.26% ( 0.26) | 46.74% ( -0.26) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31% ( 0.25) | 69% ( -0.24) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.43% ( 0.29) | 21.58% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.34% ( 0.44) | 54.66% ( -0.44) |
Watford Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.06% ( -0.06) | 27.94% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.43% ( -0.08) | 63.57% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Luton Town | Draw | Watford |
1-0 @ 9.25% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.62% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.95% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.49% Total : 43.34% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.03% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.99% | 0-1 @ 7.69% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.52% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.82% Total : 31.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Burnley | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 41 |
4 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | Watford | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Luton TownLuton | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 25 |
15 | Derby CountyDerby | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 24 |
17 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 22 |
19 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
22 | Portsmouth | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 17 |
23 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
24 | Hull City | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 16 |
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