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Premier League | Gameweek 13
Oct 23, 2022 at 2pm UK
Villa Park
Brentford logo

Aston Villa
4 - 0
Brentford

Bailey (2'), Ings (7', 14' pen.), Watkins (59')
Ings (35')
FT(HT: 3-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Brentford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Fulham 3-0 Aston Villa
Thursday, October 20 at 7.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brentford 0-0 Chelsea
Wednesday, October 19 at 7.30pm in Premier League

We said: Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford

Brentford have drawn three of their five away Premier League matches this season, while Villa have won just twice in front of their own fans in the league this term. There should be a reaction from the hosts following Gerrard's departure, but Brentford are strong enough to claim a point here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 45.15%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Brentford win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston VillaDrawBrentford
45.15% (-0.032000000000004 -0.03) 26.26% (0.021999999999998 0.02) 28.58% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Both teams to score 50.82% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.6% (-0.080999999999996 -0.08)53.4% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.07% (-0.068000000000001 -0.07)74.93% (0.069000000000003 0.07)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.43% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)23.57% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.36% (-0.073 -0.07)57.64% (0.074999999999996 0.07)
Brentford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.49% (-0.034000000000006 -0.03)33.51% (0.035000000000004 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.85% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)70.15% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 45.15%
    Brentford 28.58%
    Draw 26.26%
Aston VillaDrawBrentford
1-0 @ 11.41% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.02% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-0 @ 8.25% (0.0019999999999989 0)
3-1 @ 4.34% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.97% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.38% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.57% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.44% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 45.15%
1-1 @ 12.48% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.9% (0.026 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.93% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 26.26%
0-1 @ 8.64% (0.02 0.02)
1-2 @ 6.82% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-2 @ 4.72% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.49% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
2-3 @ 1.8% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 1.72%
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 28.58%

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Brentford

Aston Villa
36.8%
Draw
19.4%
Brentford
43.8%
201
Head to Head
Jan 2, 2022 2pm
Brentford
2-1
Aston Villa
Wissa (42'), Roerslev (83')
Onyeka (31'), Toney (77')
Ings (16')
Ramsey (30'), McGinn (89')
Aug 28, 2021 3pm
Aston Villa
1-1
Brentford
Buendia (13')
El Ghazi (50'), Cash (61'), Ings (72')
Toney (7')
Toney (52'), Norgaard (60'), Janelt (75')
Feb 13, 2019 7.45pm
Aug 22, 2018 7.45pm
Aston Villa
2-2
Brentford
Kodjia (39', 90')
Kodjia (16'), Chester (67'), Grealish (68')
Maupay (23', 82')
Watkins (33'), Benrahma (75')
Dec 26, 2017 7.30pm
Brentford
2-1
Aston Villa
Sawyers (22'), Vibe (52')
McEachran (37'), Barbet (41')
Onomah (30')
Elphick (68')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Manchester CityMan City97202091123
2Liverpool97111751222
3Arsenal95311710718
4Aston Villa95311611518
5Chelsea95221911817
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton94411612416
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest9441117416
8Tottenham HotspurSpurs94141810813
9Brentford94141818013
10Fulham93331212012
11Bournemouth93331111012
12Newcastle UnitedNewcastle9333910-112
13West Ham UnitedWest Ham93241316-311
14Manchester UnitedMan Utd9324811-311
15Leicester CityLeicester92341317-49
16Everton92341016-69
17Crystal Palace9135611-56
18Ipswich TownIpswich9045920-114
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves90271225-132
20Southampton9018619-131


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