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Bundesliga | Gameweek 9
Nov 2, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Leipzig logo

Dortmund
2 - 1
RB Leipzig

Beier (30'), Guirassy (65')
Beier (21'), Bensebaini (34'), Azhil (90+7')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Sesko (27')
Baumgartner (8'), Henrichs (35'), Geertruida (40'), Kampl (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wolfsburg 1-0 Dortmund
Tuesday, October 29 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: RB Leipzig 4-2 St Pauli
Tuesday, October 29 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Borussia Dortmund 1-3 RB Leipzig

It is difficult to see how Dortmund can avoid defeat given their sheer number of injury absentees, as well as their poor form. Additionally, despite their continental struggles this term, RB Leipzig have been exceptional in the Bundesliga, and it would not be surprising if they inflicted more misery upon Dortmund on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 53.44%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 25.4% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.78%) and 1-0 (6.54%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawRB Leipzig
53.44% (-1.695 -1.7) 21.16% (0.415 0.41) 25.4% (1.289 1.29)
Both teams to score 65.51% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.13% (-0.68899999999999 -0.69)32.87% (0.697 0.7)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.42% (-0.799 -0.8)54.58% (0.808 0.81)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.44% (-0.709 -0.71)12.56% (0.717 0.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.38% (-1.502 -1.5)38.62% (1.51 1.51)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.92% (0.55199999999999 0.55)25.08% (-0.544 -0.54)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.24% (0.756 0.76)59.77% (-0.748 -0.75)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 53.44%
    RB Leipzig 25.4%
    Draw 21.16%
Borussia DortmundDrawRB Leipzig
2-1 @ 9.38% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-0 @ 6.78% (-0.127 -0.13)
1-0 @ 6.54% (0.061 0.06)
3-1 @ 6.48% (-0.203 -0.2)
3-0 @ 4.69% (-0.223 -0.22)
3-2 @ 4.48% (-0.069 -0.07)
4-1 @ 3.36% (-0.204 -0.2)
4-0 @ 2.43% (-0.188 -0.19)
4-2 @ 2.33% (-0.102 -0.1)
5-1 @ 1.4% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-3 @ 1.07% (-0.03 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.01% (-0.109 -0.11)
5-2 @ 0.97% (-0.071 -0.07)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 53.44%
1-1 @ 9.04% (0.223 0.22)
2-2 @ 6.48% (0.082 0.08)
0-0 @ 3.15% (0.115 0.12)
3-3 @ 2.07% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 21.16%
1-2 @ 6.25% (0.249 0.25)
0-1 @ 4.36% (0.225 0.23)
0-2 @ 3.01% (0.2 0.2)
2-3 @ 2.99% (0.084 0.08)
1-3 @ 2.88% (0.158 0.16)
0-3 @ 1.39% (0.112 0.11)
2-4 @ 1.03% (0.045 0.05)
1-4 @ 1% (0.07 0.07)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 25.4%

How you voted: Dortmund vs RB Leipzig

Borussia Dortmund
21.2%
Draw
19.6%
RB Leipzig
59.2%
179
Head to Head
Apr 27, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 31
RB Leipzig
4-1
Dortmund
Openda (23'), Sesko (45+2'), Simakan (46'), Baumgartner (80')
Simakan (37')
Sancho (20')
Sancho (37'), Schlotterbeck (76')
Dec 9, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 14
Dortmund
2-3
RB Leipzig
Sule (45+6'), Fullkrug (90+3')
Ozcan (60')
Hummels (15')
Bensebaini (32' og.), Baumgartner (54'), Poulsen (90+1')
Simakan (35'), Simons (61'), Openda (66')
Apr 5, 2023 7.45pm
Quarter-Finals
RB Leipzig
2-0
Dortmund
Werner (22'), Orban (90+8')
Mar 3, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Dortmund
2-1
RB Leipzig
Reus (21' pen.), Can (39')
Forsberg (74')
Sep 10, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
RB Leipzig
3-0
Dortmund
Orban (6'), Szoboszlai (45'), Haidara (84')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern20163162194351
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen19126146262042
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt19114444261837
4RB Leipzig209653429533
5Stuttgart209563730732
6Mainz 05Mainz209473324931
7Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach209383230230
8Werder Bremen208663436-230
9Freiburg209382736-930
10Borussia DortmundDortmund208573634229
11Wolfsburg198474234828
12Augsburg207582435-1126
13St Pauli2063111822-421
14Union BerlinUnion Berlin205691627-1121
15Hoffenheim194692537-1218
16Heidenheim2042142542-1714
17Holstein Kiel2033143152-2112
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum2024141744-2710


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