Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 50.27%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 24.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 1-0 (7.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.