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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 40.36%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 30.06% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.09%) and 2-1 (7.76%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 0-1 (11.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Stoke City | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
40.36% | 29.57% | 30.06% |
Both teams to score 42.38% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
35.6% | 64.4% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
16.53% | 83.47% |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.69% | 31.3% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.34% | 67.66% |
Nottingham Forest Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.69% | 38.31% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.93% | 75.06% |
Score Analysis |
Stoke City | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
1-0 @ 13.92% 2-0 @ 8.09% 2-1 @ 7.76% 3-0 @ 3.13% 3-1 @ 3.01% 3-2 @ 1.44% 4-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.1% Total : 40.36% | 1-1 @ 13.36% 0-0 @ 11.99% 2-2 @ 3.72% Other @ 0.49% Total : 29.57% | 0-1 @ 11.5% 1-2 @ 6.41% 0-2 @ 5.52% 1-3 @ 2.05% 0-3 @ 1.77% 2-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 1.62% Total : 30.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 32 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 32 |
3 | Burnley | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 30 |
4 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 27 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 26 |
7 | Watford | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
8 | Millwall | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 24 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
11 | Derby CountyDerby | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
12 | Stoke CityStoke | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 20 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 19 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 17 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
22 | Hull City | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
> Championship Full Table |