Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 4, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
3 - 2
Feyenoord

Morata (12', 47'), Griezmann (45+3')
Azpilicueta (33'), Niguez (41'), Morata (45+1'), Lino (56')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Hermoso (7' og.), Hancko (34')
Stengs (53')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and Feyenoord, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Atletico 3-2 Cadiz
Sunday, October 1 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Feyenoord

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Feyenoord 3-1 Go Ahead Eagles
Saturday, September 30 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Feyenoord

As Atletico Madrid have won just one of their last 11 home matches in the Champions League - drawing on no less than seven occasions - something must change soon or they risk a second straight group exit. With fearless Feyenoord lacking their star striker due to suspension, a window of opportunity now presents itself, so Simeone's men can edge to victory by the odd goal in three. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Feyenoord had a probability of 35.91% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.16%). The likeliest Feyenoord win was 1-2 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Feyenoord
39.1% ( 0.83)	24.99% ( -0.09)	35.91% ( -0.74)

Both teams to score 57.72% (

0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.33% (

0.38)

45.67% (

-0.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32% (

0.36)

67.99% (

-0.36)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.83% (

0.6)

23.17% (

-0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.95% (

0.87)

57.05% (

-0.87)

Feyenoord Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.13% (

-0.23)

24.87% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.52% (

-0.33)

59.47% (

0.33)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 39.1%

Feyenoord 35.91%

Draw 24.98%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Feyenoord
2-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 8.43% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 3% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.91% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.53% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.16% Total : 39.1%	1-1 @ 11.72% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.97% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 5.76% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.98%	1-2 @ 8.16% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 8.02% ( -0.19) 0-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 3.78% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.77% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.74% Total : 35.91%