Ukraine play host to Bosnia-Herzegovina on Tuesday evening knowing that three points will put them on the brink of securing second spot in Group D.
However, victory for the visitors would see them move ahead of their opponents with a game in hand, heaping the pressure on both nations in Lviv.
Match preview
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With Andriy Shevchenko stepping down from his position as Ukraine coach after Euro 2020, there were fears that the progress made under the national legend may be undone.
However, Ukraine have been equally impressive under Oleksandr Petrakov, the Blue and Yellow now registering three credible draws and a win since the start of September.
Ukraine were perceived to be the marginal underdogs ahead of their trip to Finland, but goals from Andriy Yarmolenko and Roman Yaremchuk proved enough to earn a 2-1 victory in Helsinki.
As well as taking a major step towards seeing off the threat of their opponents, the win also kept Ukraine two points clear of their next foes.
The quirk of these two teams not playing each other until the end of Group D means that nothing will be set in stone at the conclusion of Tuesday's fixture.
However, Bosnia-Herzegovina arguably have more to lose with a defeat, potentially freeing up Ukraine to take advantage of playing in Lviv.
Remarkably, these two nations have only suffered one defeat between them thus far, but it took until the weekend for both teams to record maximum points.
Bosnia-Herzegovina's success came in Nur-Sultan, the Dragons benefitting from Smail Prevljak's two goals either side of half time.
Ivaylo Petev's team have lost just twice in nine games during 2021, those defeats coming by 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines to France and Denmark respectively.
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Team News
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Barring any late fitness issues, Petev could stick with the Bosnia-Herzegovina players which started the game in Kazakhstan.
Adi Nalic is an alternative in the midfield with Gojko Cimirot potentially dropping down to the substitutes' bench.
Changes to the Ukraine side will also be kept to a minimum after the triumph in Finland.
Viktor Kornienko could potentially be included at left wing-back after replacing Eduard Sobol at half time in Helsinki.
Sergiy Sydorchuk is an option in midfield if Petrakov decides that he wants to introduce fresh legs.
Ukraine possible starting lineup:
Pyatov; Matvienko, Kryvtsov, Zabaryni; Tymchyk, Stepanenko, Shaparenko, Kornienko; Yarmolenko, Tsygankov; Yaremchuk
Bosnia-Herzegovina possible starting lineup:
Sehic; Civic, Ahmedhodzic, Kovacevic; Stevanovic, Cimirot, Hadziahmetovic, Gojak, Kolasinac; Dzeko, Prevljak
We say: Ukraine 2-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina
With France out of the way, Bosnia-Herzegovina will feel that a win on Tuesday could eventually prove enough to claim a playoff spot. However, not many nations return from Ukraine with a victory, and that leads us to predict a win for the hosts.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 57.53%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 17.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.92%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win it was 0-1 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
