Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 8, 2023 at 5pm UK

Cairo International Stadium

Egypt
1 - 0
Ethiopia

Fathi (37')
Mohamed (55'), El Shenawy (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Panomo (90+5')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Egypt and Ethiopia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Egypt

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Egypt 3-0 South Sudan
Sunday, June 18 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nigeria	3	5	9
2	Egypt	3	1	6
3	Sudan	3	-3	1
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-3	1

Ethiopia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Ethiopia 2-0 Guyana
Thursday, August 3 at 12am in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cameroon	3	4	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	0	4
3	Cape Verde	3	0	4
4	Ethiopia	3	-4	1

Egypt head into the weekend as one of the most in-form sides in the qualifiers and will be looking to extend their dominant run against the Wali Ibex. Ethiopia's form on the road also makes Vitoria's men firm on favourites to come out on top and we are backing them to pick up a comfortable victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 74.97%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 7.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.16%) and 3-0 (11.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Egypt would win this match.

Result
Egypt	Draw	Ethiopia
74.97% ( 0.09)	17.04% ( -0.07)	7.99% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 37.71% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.47% (

0.21)

48.52% (

-0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.35% (

0.19)

70.65% (

-0.19)

Egypt Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.7% (

0.08)

11.3% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.07% (

0.18)

35.93% (

-0.18)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

42.51% (

0.08)

57.49% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

10.68% (

0.04)

89.31% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Egypt 74.96%

Ethiopia 7.99%

Draw 17.04%

Egypt	Draw	Ethiopia
2-0 @ 15.44% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 14.16% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 11.22% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.21% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 74.96%	1-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.49% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 2.37% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.34% Total : 17.04%	0-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.17% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 1.23% Total : 7.99%