Champions League hopefuls Benfica travel to the Estadio Joao Cardoso on Friday evening where they will face Tondela in the Primeira Liga.
The hosts head into this game having won eight of their 10 top-flight matches on home soil this season, while the Eagles have taken an impressive 24 points from the last 27 available.
Match preview
© Reuters
After suffering a surprise 2-1 defeat at home Gil Vicente earlier this month – which brought a 10-game unbeaten run to an end – Benfica have since responded with a thumping 5-1 victory at Portimonense last Thursday and a 2-1 win at home to Santa Clara on Monday.
An own goal from Santa Clara winger Carlos gave the Eagles the lead but the visitors managed to score an equaliser midway through the second half, when Anderson Carvalho smashed the ball past Helton Leite inside the penalty area.
Jorge Jesus's side struggled to threaten the opposition's goal throughout the match, however Chiquinho's 73rd-minute strike, which was their only shot on target, was enough to seal all three points for the Eagles.
Benfica's hopes of winning the Primeira Liga title are almost mathematically over but that result on Monday has moved them to within four points of rivals Porto, who currently occupy the final automatic Champions League qualification spot.
The Eagles are still to face both Porto and league leaders Sporting Lisbon in the coming weeks, so securing all three points on Friday could be crucial if they are to ensure a top-two finish this season.
© Reuters
Tondela extended their unbeaten away run in the top-flight to four matches after drawing 2-2 at Famalicao on Monday evening.
The hosts scored twice before the half-hour mark thanks to strikes from Ivo Rodrigues and Leonardo Campana, however they were unable to hold onto their two-goal cushion, as both Mario Gonzalez and Jhon Murillo scored in first-half stoppage time.
An entertaining first 45 eventually fizzled out in the second half to see both sides claim a point each, leaving Pako Ayestaran's side in ninth place and seven points above the bottom three.
Tondela have accumulated 11 points from their last six matches, enabling them to look towards the top end of the table, and they could finish the campaign as high as sixth, to eclipse their best ever finish of 11th place in 2017-18.
The Gold and Greens have only ever beaten Benfica once before in the top-flight, winning 3-2 away from home in April 2018, but a surprise win on Friday would all but ensure their top-flight status for another year and could move them up to seventh in the table.
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Tondela boss Ayestaran could name the same starting lineup that drew away at Famalicao on Monday.
Murillo and Salvador Agra are likely to start on the flanks and provide support for lone striker Gonzalez, while a central midfield trio of Joao Pedro, Jaume Grau and Roberto Olabe is set to continue once again.
Benfica midfielder Gabriel Pires is back from suspension and is in contention to start on Friday, which could see Julian Weigl drop to the bench.
Darwin Nunez and Luca Waldschmidt, who began on the bench against Santa Clara, could also return to the first XI at the expense of Everton and Haris Seferovic.
Andreas Samaris (Achilles), Adel Taarabt (muscle) and Andre Almeida (knee) all remain unavailable through injury.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Almeida, Tavares, Martinez, Ferreira; Pedro, Grau, Olabe; Murillo, Gonzalez, Agra
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Leite; Verissimo, Otamendi, Vertonghen; Goncalves, Pizzi, Pires, Grimaldo; Nunez, Seferovic, Rafa
We say: Tondela 1-3 Benfica
Benfica have won all five of their previous meetings away at Tondela in the top-flight by an aggregate score of 15-2. The Eagles will be strong favourites for Friday's clash, and we expect them to claim all three points once again at the Estadio Joao Cardoso.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.04%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 9.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.85%) and 0-3 (10.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.94%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (3.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Benfica in this match.
