Almeria

4 - 1

Lugo

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 49.09%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 23.99%.

The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.85%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.