In a crucial game down at the bottom of the Primeira Liga table, Tondela await the visit of Boavista on Saturday as both teams look to scamper away from relegation danger.
Boavista are currently in the drop zone with only 11 points to their name, but their hosts are not far off ahead, as the teams are separated by one point.
Match preview
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Tondela suffered a fourth consecutive league defeat away from home as they lost 2-0 to Benfica last time out, courtesy of second half strikes from Haris Seferovic and Luca Waldschmidt.
No team in the division has picked up fewer points on the road than Pako Ayestaran's men, whose only away point came at Gil Vicente earlier in the season.
However, their home form has been significantly better, with 11 of their 12 points coming at the Estadio Joao Cardoso.
One point is all that separates them from relegation as things stand, and a significant improvement is needed if they are to avoid dropping down to the Segunda Liga for the first time since they were promoted back in 2015.
Since their aforementioned promotion, they have faced Saturday's visitors 12 times, and the CDT Auriverdes have struggled more often than not with two wins, five losses and five draws, which include both of last season's clashes.
Boavista began their league campaign with no wins in the first five games, before they put an end to that run with an emphatic 3-0 demolition of last year's runners-up Benfica.
However, that has turned out to be Os Axadrezados only league triumph to date, so it is no surprise they currently occupy 17th place – separated from bottom-placed Portimonense only on more goals scored - in the Primeira Liga table.
Despite being a point behind them, Boavista have scored more and conceded fewer goals than Tondela, whom they would leapfrog should they manage to pick up all three points.
Former Manchester United midfielder Angel Gomes has been the standout player for his side, scoring three goals and assisting another three since his move to the Estadio do Bessa XXI on loan from Lille.
Tondela Primeira Liga form: LLDLWL
Tondela form (all competitions): LLDLWL
Boavista Primeira Liga form: DDDLDD
Boavista form (all competitions): DLDLDD
Team News
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Both sides have relatively clean bills of health with only a few players expected to be unavailable for the game.
Tondela's Joel Sousa will miss the game as he continues to isolate on the back of testing positive for coronavirus.
For the away side, Miguel Reisinho is the only guaranteed absentee after he suffered a season-ending ACL injury last November.
Although, Jesualdo Ferreira could make some alterations to his starting XI as he seeks to turn his side's fortunes around.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Naoufel, Alves, Tavares, Almeida; Grau, Jaquite, Augusto, Pedro; Gonzalez, Agra
Boavista possible starting lineup:
Jardim; Hamache, Awaziem, Castro, Cannon; Paulinho, Show, Santos; Njie, Gomes, Elis
We say: Tondela 2-1 Boavista
Boavista are really struggling at the moment and given Tondela's home form, you can expect the home side to come out victorious in this one, heaping further misery on their visitors.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 42.34%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 28.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 1-2 (8.15%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
