Belenenses welcome Boavista to the Estadio Nacional on Sunday, as the sides lock horns in an important game at the bottom end of the Primeira Liga table.
Boavista currently sit in the relegation playoff place, level on points with the bottom two, while Belenenses have lifted themselves up the table thanks to an upturn in form, but remain just five points ahead of their opponents.
Match preview
© Reuters
Belenenses saw an impressive upturn in form prior to the international break, picking up 11 points from eight games.
Most recently, Petit's side held ninth-placed Rio Ave to a goalless draw, an impressive result considering the fact that goalkeeper Stanislav Kritsyuk was shown a red card after just three minutes.
Before that, they secured a crucial 1-0 victory at home to strugglers Farense, as Miguel Cardoso netted the winner with 10 minutes left to go.
As a result, Belenenses have put some vital distance between themselves and relegation places, with five points separating themselves from the bottom two and Boavista in the relegation playoff place.
However, Pepa will feel that his side are still anything but safe, as defeat in this game would see the gap between themselves and Boavista reduced to just two points and could allow the bottom two to gain more ground on them.
To prevent that, Belenenses will need to improve their attacking output, with no side in the top flight scoring as few as the 14 goals they have netted in 24 league games this season.
Their defence has been far more impressive though, with only league leaders Sporting Lisbon and third-placed Benfica conceding fewer than the 21 goals that Pepa's men have shipped.
© Reuters
The visitors come into this game looking to bounce back from consecutive league defeats before the international break.
While the first of those losses was to third-placed Benfica, the more recent defeat to fellow strugglers Farense will be much more concerning.
Lica netted the only goal of the game, which saw Farense pick up a crucial three points to leapfrog Boavista, sending Jesualdo Ferreira's side into the bottom three.
However, they still have everything to play for, as they sit just one point adrift of automatic safety, while a win on Sunday would see them go just two points behind Belenenses.
That should offer huge encouragement to Ferreira and his side, as they look to secure a huge win in their bid to avoid the drop to the second tier.
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Belenenses will face the major loss of goalkeeper Stanislav Kritsyuk for this game, after he was sent off in the draw with Rio Ave.
In his absence, Andre Moreira will start in goal, after he put in a resilient performance in the face of a long period of Rio Ave dominance to keep a crucial clean sheet and seal a point for his side.
Everything good for Belenenses this season has been built on their solid defensive line, with Goncalo Silva, Henrique and Tomas Ribeiro forming a formidable back three.
Their midfield options will be boosted by the return of Thibang Phete from suspension, but he will have to fight to earn his place back in the starting side immediately, while left-back Ruben Lima will also return from suspension to bolster Pepa's squad.
Boavista's only absentee through injury should be midfielder Miguel Reisinho, who has been out of action since November with a ligament rupture.
They will be boosted by the return of centre-back Chidozie Awaziem, who served a suspension last time out for a red card.
He could reform a familiar partnership with Cristian Devenish at the back, while Adil Rami will also be pushing for a place after he returned to the starting team last time out.
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Moreira; Silva, Henrique, Ribeiro; Esgaio, Taira, Phete, Lima; Varela, Cardoso, Sousa
Boavista possible starting lineup:
Leonardo; Cannon, Devenish, Awaziem, Mangas; Paulinho, Garcia, Hamache; Gomes, Elis, Sauer
We say: Belenenses 1-0 Boavista
Belenenses have built their season on a solid defensive record, and if they can find a way past the Boavista defence, we can see them grinding out a win in their usual manner on Sunday.
While Ferreira's side will be desperate for a victory to move them out of the bottom three, they could struggle to break down one of the league's best back lines, especially considering the recent improvement of Pepa's men.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belenenses win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 29.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belenenses win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.38%) and 2-1 (8.31%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (10.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
