Bosnia-Herzegovina can end an 11-match winless run on home soil when they face Luxembourg in a friendly on Tuesday at Bilino Polje Stadium in Zenica.
The Bosnians dropped their final two fixtures of World Cup qualifying last year to finish fourth in their group, while Les Lions Rouges began to fade down the homestretch of qualification, losing four of their final five matches in Group A.
Match preview
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When they qualified for their first World Cup in 2014, many had pegged Bosnia-Herzegovina to be one of the emerging forces in world football.
Sadly, that has not materialised eight years later, as The Golden Lilies will miss out on the finals for a second successive campaign.
Being drawn into a qualification group featuring the reigning world champions France was no easy task, although seeing as this group possess many players in the top leagues in Europe, it had to have been a little disheartening to see them finish five points back of a playoff position with only one victory.
Ivaylo Petev was brought in to try to get this side back to a respectable level, but the Bulgarian has struggled to find much early success, with only two wins and six defeats after 14 matches at the helm.
Their play in the final third has been disappointing, going goalless in back-to-back fixtures and failing to score in five of their previous seven home games.
They have had issues starting matches well, failing to tally a first-half strike in their last four fixtures, while five of their last six goals conceded have come in the second half.
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Luxembourg began the 2022 World Cup qualifying campaign with high hopes, winning two of their first three encounters, but that was as good as it would get for long-time manager Luc Holtz, who has been in charge of this side since 2010.
For a country that is smaller in total area than 48 of the 50 American states, they have caused their share of surprises, drawing France 0-0 in a 2017 World Cup qualifier and opening this qualification cycle by stunning the Republic of Ireland in Dublin 1-0.
From 2006 to 2018 they had a monumental rise in the FIFA rankings, jumping from 195th to 82nd, and as of February, they are still well positioned, seeded 93rd in the world.
With an estimated population of just over 630,000, developing a talent pool of young footballers in this tiny European Grand Duchy is not easy.
In recent matches the Western Europeans have expended a ton of pressure in their own third of the field, conceding 29 shots on target and 12 goals in their previous four games played across all competitions.
While they still have experienced their share of lopsided defeats against some of the stronger squads in their continent, they have improved their record away from home, winning their previous road encounter, 3-1 over Azerbaijan last November.
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Team News
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In their 1-0 defeat to Georgia last week, Petev made five changes to his starting 11, as Ibrahim Sehic was the starting keeper, replacing Nikola Vasilj, while Sinisa Sanicanin, Rade Krunic, Sead Kolasinac and all-time leading scorer Edin Dzeko were also inserted into the lineup.
Luka Menalo can pick up his 10th cap for the national team on Tuesday, as he, along with Miralem Pjanic and Smail Prevljak, each tallied twice for the Bosnians in the 2022 qualifying campaign.
Midfielder Rade Krunic has come on as a substitute in the last three Serie A fixtures for league leaders AC Milan, while Pjanic can surpass Sergej Barbarez for fifth in all-time goals, with the Besiktas loanee last scoring for the national team last September in a 1-1 draw versus Kazakhstan.
Marvin da Graca notched his second career goal for Luxembourg in their 3-1 defeat to Northern Ireland on Friday, while Gerson Rodrigues can draw even with Leon Letsch for seventh in all-time goals, having tallied 10 times on the national stage.
Maxime Chanot, who helped New York City FC win the MLS Cup last year, can earn his 50th international cap in this encounter.
Captain Laurent Jans has a chance to move beyond Carlo Weis for seventh in international appearances for Luxembourg, having played 85 times with Les Lions Rouges.
Danel Sinani is second in scoring for his club side Huddersfield Town, with six strikes domestically, as they are in the hunt to earn a promotion into the EFL Championship next season, while Sebastien Thill, made headlines in the Champions League earlier this season, scoring two goals in the competition for FC Sheriff, including the winner in an upset victory over Real Madrid (2-1).
Bosnia-Herzegovina possible starting lineup:
Sehic; Ahmedhodzic, Kolasinac, Dedic; Stevanovic, Cimirot, Menalo, Krunic, Danilovic; Dzeko, Prevljak
Luxembourg possible starting lineup:
Moris; Jans, Chanot, Da Graca, Pinto; Martins, Barreiro, S. Thill; Deville, O. Thill, Rodrigues
We say: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 Luxembourg
Luxembourg have not had the best of luck when facing the Bosnians, losing all six contests against them and scoring just a single goal.
As much as The Dragons have struggled at home, their scoring depth should be enough to outlast Les Lions Rouges, who spend most of their matches defending, with the odd counter.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bosnia-Herzegovina win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bosnia-Herzegovina would win this match.
