Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 41.3%. A win for Hebei China Fortune had a probability of 33.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Hebei China Fortune win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shanghai Shenhua would win this match.