Nottingham Forest travel to the North East to face Middlesbrough on Saturday as they look to continue their unbeaten run under Chris Hughton.
Middlesbrough got their second home win of the season at home to Coventry City in midweek, while Forest battled valiantly to claim a point away to Luton Town having played for 60 minutes with 10 men.
Match preview
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It took Boro 81 minutes on Tuesday night before they were able to pick the lock of Coventry's stubborn backline, as a defence-splitting pass from Sam Morsy put Britt Assombalonga through on goal to score his first of the season.
Boro then made certain of the three points when Djed Spence stole in to round the keeper and finish to help the Smoggies climb to within touching distance of the playoff places.
That is now three wins and four draws in the last seven for Boro and manager Neil Warnock will be pleased that his side are now starting to play the way he wishes them to - hard to break down and ruthless in front of goal.
Warnock will also be pleased that Assombalonga made it on to the scoresheet, as Boro's skipper will surely play a pivotal role in whether they can mount a serious promotion challenge. Assombalonga also becomes Middlesbrough's leading goalscorer of the millennium with 43 goals.
Boro will now look to secure back-to-back home wins and their first win against Forest since April 2018.
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Forest continued their unbeaten run under Hughton in midweek but will feel aggrieved that they didn't come away with more than a point, having controversially gone down to 10 men just before half time.
Nicholas Ioannou was sent off for what was adjudged to be a dangerous foul on Martin Cranie shortly before half time, a decision that Hughton strongly opposed.
Despite their disadvantage, Forest levelled through a Glen Rea own goal, after the same player had put Luton ahead in the first half. It was Rea's first goals, at either end, in over two years.
Despite their upturn in form, Forest still sit in 20th place in the Championship table, and will be very aware of how hard it will be to drag themselves away from the relegation zone.
After the trip to Boro, Hughton and his men face two must-win games at home to fellow strugglers Coventry City and Wycombe Wanderers, before they travel to Barnsley and high-flying Bournemouth.
Middlesbrough Championship form: DWDWDW
Nottingham Forest Championship form: LLLWDDD
Team News
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As a result of his dismissal on Wednesday night, Nicholas Ioannou will miss the trip to Boro and Hughton will likely call upon either Tyler Blackett or Yuri Ribeiro to deputise.
Aside from Ioannou's omission, Forest showed enough resolve against Luton to persuade Hughton to stick to the same lineup as they go in search of their first away win of the season.
Positive news arrived on Friday morning as Chuba Akpom tested negative for COVID-19, meaning that Warnock will need to decide whether the lively Patrick Roberts will once again partner Assombalonga, or if Akpom is preferred over the Manchester City loanee.
Dael Fry will be assessed after a nasty clash of heads had threatened to end the former England Under-21 star's night early in the second half in the win over the Sky Blues.
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Bettinelli; Dijksteel, Fry, McNair; Howson; Spence, Morsy, Saville, Tavernier; Roberts, Assombalonga
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Samba; Christie, McKenna, Figueiredo, Blackett; Yates, Colback; Knockaert, Lolley, Ameobi; Grabban
We say: Middlesbrough 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Warnock seems to be finding ways to transform draws into wins at present, and we see the Smoggies continuing their strong run against a Forest side that are yet to truly click under new management. This will be a closely contested matchup, but we expect Boro to come through with a narrow win.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:dataData Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.07%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 0-1 (11.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Middlesbrough in this match.
