Moreirense travel to Tondela in the Primeira Liga on Saturday with both sides having slipped into the bottom half of the table after failing to win either of their previous two league games.
Tondela's most recent top-flight outing was an entertaining 4-3 defeat to Porto, while Moreirense drew 1-1 at home to Gil Vicente.
Match preview
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Pako Ayestaran will have been pleased with his side's performances against Porto despite losing twice away from home within eight days.
Tondela pushed the Dragoes all the way in their seven-goal thriller two weeks ago and came close once again in the Taca de Portugal, narrowly losing 2-1 on Sunday.
Ayestaran has seen his side eliminated from the cup and slip to 16th in the Primeira Liga but is aware that one victory can catapult his side up the table and away from danger.
Tondela's two victories in the league this campaign have both been at home, where they will face Moreirense this weekend – a side they are unbeaten against in their last three top-flight matches.
Securing a victory on Saturday could move them into the top half of the Primeira Liga, four points clear of the relegation zone.
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Moreirense avoided losing four successive league matches as they drew at home to Gil Vicente in their last league outing.
Despite picking up eight points from their first five fixtures, a run of four games without a victory has seen Cesar Peixoto's side drop down to 13th in the table, just two points off the relegation zone.
Moreirense do however head into Saturday's match off the back of a 3-2 away victory against Cova Piedade in the Taca de Portugal. Goals in extra time from Steven Vitoria and Andre Luis secured their place in the last 16 of the competition.
Peixoto will hope that his side can use that cup triumph as motivation to put a good run of form together in the league and move back into the top half of the table, starting with a victory this weekend.
Tondela Primeira Liga form: DWLWLL
Tondela form (all competitions): LWWLLL
Moreirense Primeira Liga form: DWLLLD
Moreirense form (all competitions): LWLLDW
Team News
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Tondela midfielder Salvador Agra, who was shown a straight red card against Vitoria, is suspended for this weekend's match.
Goalkeeper Joel Sousa is also unavailable for Saturday as he has tested positive for coronavirus. Babacar Niasse, who has now recovered from COVID-19, is set to start in goal.
Mario Gonzalez, who scored twice in the 4-3 loss against Porto, is likely to keep his place up front and could be partnered by Croatian forward Tomislav Strkalj.
Moreirense left-back Pedro Amador and forward Pedro Nuno are both ruled out for the long term with torn ligament injuries.
Striker Andre Luis is set to retain his place up front and have support down the flanks from Felipe Pires and Walterson.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Medloub, Martinez, Tavares; Murillo, Pedro, Augusto, Ferreira; Barbosa; Gonzalez, Strkalj
Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Pasinato; D'Alberto, Rosic, Vitoria, Figueiredo; Pacheco; Pires, F. Soares, A. Soares, Walterson; Luis
We say: Tondela 2-1 Moreirense
Both sides are precariously positioned just above the relegation zone and know that another poor result could see them drop into the bottom two. Moreirense have struggled to keep clean sheets this campaign and we feel that the home side could take advantage of their defensive weaknesses and claim a slender victory.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 36.66%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 30.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.31%) and 2-1 (7.03%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 0-1 (12.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
