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Serie A
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Serie A | Gameweek 38
Jun 4, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Spezia Calcio logo

Roma
2 - 1
Spezia

Zalewski (43'), Dybala (90+1' pen.)
Pellegrini (44'), Dybala (78')
Foti (15')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Nikolaou (6')
Esposito (14'), Nikolaou (58'), Zoet (66'), Amian (76'), Semplici (79+79'), Gyasi (86'), Wisniewski (90+7'), Shomurodov (90+12')
Amian (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Roma and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Sevilla 1-1 Roma (4-1 pen.)
Wednesday, May 31 at 8pm in Europa League

Spezia

All competitions
Last Game: Spezia 0-4 Torino
Saturday, May 27 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: Roma 2-1 Spezia

 Despite Roma's heartache in midweek, Mourinho should be able to get his players motivated for one last push in what could be his late game in charge. Spezia's form has been woeful in 2023, and they are lucky that Verona's has been similarly poor, with a relegation playout looking likely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 65.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 13.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.11%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.63%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Roma in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Roma.

Result
RomaDrawSpezia
65.91% (0.33499999999999 0.33) 20.27% (-0.093 -0.09) 13.82% (-0.25 -0.25)
Both teams to score 47.55% (-0.357 -0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.34% (-0.133 -0.13)46.65% (0.123 0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.08% (-0.125 -0.13)68.92% (0.116 0.12)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.69% (0.054000000000002 0.05)13.3% (-0.062000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.86% (0.11799999999999 0.12)40.14% (-0.125 -0.13)
Spezia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.85% (-0.449 -0.45)45.15% (0.44 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.94% (-0.36 -0.36)81.05% (0.352 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Roma 65.91%
    Spezia 13.82%
    Draw 20.27%
RomaDrawSpezia
2-0 @ 12.22% (0.12 0.12)
1-0 @ 12.11% (0.09 0.09)
2-1 @ 9.72% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
3-0 @ 8.22% (0.099 0.1)
3-1 @ 6.53% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 4.14% (0.059 0.06)
4-1 @ 3.3% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.6% (-0.032 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.67% (0.028 0.03)
5-1 @ 1.33% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.31% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 65.91%
1-1 @ 9.63% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 6.01% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 3.86% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 20.27%
0-1 @ 4.78% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-2 @ 3.83% (-0.066 -0.07)
0-2 @ 1.9% (-0.037 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.02% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.02% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.27%
Total : 13.82%

How you voted: Roma vs Spezia

Roma
74.0%
Draw
16.9%
Spezia
9.1%
77
Head to Head
Jan 22, 2023 5pm
gameweek 19
Spezia
0-2
Roma
El Shaarawy (45'), Abraham (49')
Feb 27, 2022 5.05pm
gameweek 27
Spezia
0-1
Roma

Agudelo (30'), Amian (39'), Kiwior (86'), Maggiore (90+7')
Amian (45')
Abraham (90+9' pen.)
Mancini (45+3'), Kumbulla (64'), Zaniolo (90+5')
Dec 13, 2021 7.45pm
gameweek 17
Roma
2-0
Spezia
Smalling (6'), Ibanez (56')
Vina (54'), Kumbulla (65'), Afena-Gyan (70')
Afena-Gyan (90+3')

Gyasi (90+2')
May 23, 2021 7.45pm
gameweek 38
Spezia
2-2
Roma
Verde (6'), Pobega (38')
El Shaarawy (52'), Mkhitaryan (85')
Kumbulla (90+4')
Jan 23, 2021 2pm
gameweek 19
Roma
4-3
Spezia
Mayoral (17', 52'), Karsdorp (55'), Pellegrini (90+2')
Peres (87'), Mayoral (87'), Pellegrini (90+3')
Piccoli (24'), Farias (59'), Verde (90')
Chabot (21')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta16121339172237
2Napoli16112324111335
3Inter Milan15104140152534
4Fiorentina1594228111731
5Lazio1610153023731
6Juventus16610026121428
7Bologna156722118325
8AC Milan156542416823
9Udinese166281925-620
10Empoli164751416-219
11Torino165471720-319
12Roma164481823-516
13Genoa163761324-1116
14Lecce164481027-1716
15Parma163672328-515
16Como163671828-1015
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1650112139-1815
18CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
19Monza161781421-710
20VeneziaVenezia1624101529-1410
> Serie A Full Table


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