Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Karlsruher SC win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Karlsruher SC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 1-0 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.