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Preview: Alexei Popyrin vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's US Open third-round match between Alexei Popyrin and Novak Djokovic, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Alexei Popyrin seeks to upset US Open defending champion Novak Djokovic in Friday's third-round match.

The Australian has dispatched his opponents in rounds one and two, while the 24-time Grand Slam winner has had to showcase his mastery of winning ugly in his title defence.


Match preview

Novak Djokovic in action at the US Open on August 29, 2024© Imago

Popyrin heads into a fourth ATP Tour meeting with Djokovic having barely broken a sweat in Queens, underscored by straight-set victories over Kwon Soon-woo and Pedro Martinez.

The Australian's round two victory over the Spaniard saw the No. 28 seed drop just six games in three sets to notch a 6-2, 6-4, 6-0 victory over his unseeded second-round opponent, and he heads into Friday's match against probably the best player to have held a tennis racquet, keen to upset the four-time champion in New York.

While the 25-year-old has been impressive at Flushing Meadows, his previous four main draw appearances at the US Open have peaked in third-round exits in 2019 and 2021.

He has already matched that in 2024, outdoing his tournament-opening exit 12 months back, but faces a daunting proposition against Djokovic, who got the better of him at Wimbledon in their recent match-up.

The Serbian may not have found his best level in rounds one and two, although the basic battling qualities have been evident in the first round and against countryman Laslo Djere in Wednesday's night session on Arthur Ashe.

Djokovic has struggled on serve at the start of the tournament, underscored by 10 double-faults against Moldovan qualifier Radu Albot in his tournament opener while the count was eight before Djere's retirement with the 24-time Grand Slam champion ahead 6-4, 6-4, 2-0.

Both sets lasted 60 minutes or more, as the defending champion forced his opponent to play one extra ball despite playing suboptimal tennis by his standards while carrying a threat during their rallies.

The upshot of the 37-year-old's victory means his winning streak since the Wimbledon final loss to Carlos Alcaraz stands at eight — all without dropping a single set.

Excluding that comfortable win for Alcaraz at SW19, the last player to beat Djokovic on Tour was Tomas Machac in a clay-court event in Geneva in May, and the Serbian aims to extend his ongoing winning run at the expense of Popyrin's bid for a first fourth-round appearance at a Major.


Tournament so far

Alexei Popyrin:

First round: vs. Kwon Soon-woo 7-5 6-2 6-3
Second round: vs. Pedro Martinez 6-2 6-4 6-0

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Radu Albot 6-2 6-2 6-4
Second round: vs. Laslo Djere 6-4 6-4 2-0 ret.


Head To Head

Japan Open (2019) - Round of 32: Djokovic 6-4 6-2

Australian Open (2024) - Second round: Djokovic 6-3 4-6 7-6(4) 6-3

Wimbledon (2024) - Third round: Djokovic 4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(3)

Djokovic has never been beaten by Popyrin heading into their fourth match-up on the ATP Tour, with the Serbian entering Friday's match the clear favourite.

They play at the US Open for the third time in 2024, having faced off at Slams in Australia and recently at Wimbledon.

The Serbian claimed his first match-up with Popyrin in straight sets in 2019, but the Australian has competed commendably in their 2024 meetings, taking a set off the 24-time Grand Slam winner both times.


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We say: Djokovic to win in four sets

While Djokovic has not lost a set since the Wimbledon final, Popyrin is playing well enough to nick one off the 37-year-old defending champion who has yet to hit top level. Regardless, the Serbian is backed to seal progress to the fourth round where Ben Shelton or Frances Tiafoe lie in wait.

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Novak Djokovic in action at the US Open on August 29, 2024
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